I have been concerned for quite some time that Obama's lead in the polls was an overestimate, a result of the Bradley Effect. This was apparent in some of the primary states, particularly New Hampshire, where Obama lost despite the fact the polls showed him ahead. This is assumed to be the result of people saying they will vote for a black man, and then, in the privacy of the voting booth, doing no such thing. This effect obviously did not happen in caucus states, where there is no hiding behind a curtain.
However, in (somewhat) happier news, one of the speakers at the Conference reported that a study has found a Bradley effect in only 3 states, but a reverse Bradley effect in 12 states. The reverse effect seems to come from Christian conservatives who won't admit to their friends or the pollsters that they would vote for a black man, and but then they actually do.
So I guess the upshot is that Obama's lead may actually be an underestimate. Not that I'm counting my chickens yet. In fact, I'll be lucky if I even get to vote, and I'll never forgive myself if I don't.
New Mexico requires you to apply for an absentee ballot. They say they need to receive the application by October 25th in order for everything to work on time. I mailed in my application on October 17th. They just mailed me my ballot on October 29th. Wednesday. Presumably through the Albuquerque post office, which is notoriously the worst domestic post office ever. So I'm assuming the best case scenario is that I receive my ballot Saturday or Monday and then send it via overnight fedex to the County Clerk, who has to receive it by 7 pm November 4th. In which case I will be paying a large amount for my right to vote. Worst case scenario is that I receive it on Tuesday or even later, in which case, I will have been basically disenfranchised. Way to go New Mexico!
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